, contentious Supreme Court hearings, and an embattled Republican president with low approval ratings, power in Congress has the potential to experience a significant shift this election cycle. Should the Democrats take back the Senate and the White House, and retain their majority in the House of Representatives, the Democratic Party will be in control of the federal government for the first time since the 111th Congress from 2009 to 2011.
With the stakes so high for working families and average citizens, many who have lost work due to the coronavirus pandemic, movements for voter registration have been much louder than in previous election cycles. Candidates are under greater scrutiny, live debates are widely viewed, and fundraising against prolific incumbent Republican senators have reached noticeable highs.
This election cycle, 23 Republican seats are up for re-election, with 12 Democratic seats contested as well. As dramatic as the presidential election of 2020 may be, the Senate elections could very well have a larger impact on Americans. Candidates are facing their constituents as early voting begins, but polling data gives some authoritative insight on how Election Day may go for them.
Using forecast data from 270toWin and FiveThirtyEight, Stacker laid out the 35 Senate races that will be decided on Election Day—Nov. 3—and the likely outcome of each race. The 270toWin forecast takes into consideration projections from four different political pundits and rates each projected outcome either a toss-up, or safe, likely, or leaning toward one party. The FiveThirtyEight forecast uses a model that simulates each election 40,000 times to show possible outcomes and then calculates each major candidate’s chance of winning the election. Both forecasts are updated daily.
Georgia and Louisiana will have special elections this year, which means that multiple candidates from each party are competing for the majority vote on Election Day. If no one gets a majority, the top two candidates will have a runoff election after Election Day. Additionally, most elections will have the incumbent going up against the other party’s nominated candidate, but Kansas, New Mexico, Tennessee, and Wyoming’s incumbent senators are not running for re-election. Click on to see which of these races, if any, you will have a part in.
You may also like: Iconic buildings that were demolished