Production of both spring wheat and durum wheat is not expected to change significantly from last year in the state that leads the nation in the production of both, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Friday.
Spring wheat - North Dakota's principle crop - is used for such mainstay foods as bread. Durum wheat is the main ingredient in pasta. North Dakota produces about half of the nation's crop of each type of wheat.
Friday's report is not expected to have a big impact on either the prices farmers receive for the crops or what consumers pay in the grocery store, an industry expert said.
North Dakota's spring wheat crop is pegged at 230 million bushels, down 6 percent from last year. In South Dakota, the forecast is for 63 million bushels, down 8 percent. Nationally, the crop is projected at 506 million bushels, down 7 percent.
North Dakota's durum crop is expected to total 42.4 million bushels, up less than 1 percent. Nationally, the projected crop of 81.2 million bushels would be down 4 percent from a year ago.
Smaller crops often mean better market prices for farmers and higher food prices for families, but Erica Peterson, a marketing specialist with the North Dakota Wheat Commission, said supply-and-demand estimates don't indicate that.
"It looks like we're going to have plentiful supplies," she said. "I don't think the market is going to be all that concerned about stock levels."
That's despite the fact that some industry officials think the USDA spring wheat number might not reflect the difficult planting season in North Dakota.
Record flooding led to many acres not being planted, and some of them might not be accounted for in the USDA estimates. The federal Risk Management Agency has said it will not have final numbers on unplanted acres until September at the earliest.
And seeding of many other fields was late, so the harvest might be less than the predicted average yield of 36 bushels per acre.
"The production number was probably a little bit higher than we expected because of the late season and the issues we had this spring," Peterson said. "I think there's still a chance for those (production) numbers to change a little bit."
Nationally, winter wheat is planted in more areas and is a much bigger crop than spring wheat. North Dakota's winter wheat production is pegged at 23 million bushels, up 2 percent from 2008.
North Dakota production of barley, another major crop, is expected to be down 28 percent to 62.2 million bushels, but the decrease is on the heels of one of the better crops in recent memory. Nationally, the expected drop in barley is not as steep - only 15 percent.
North Dakota typically produces more than a third of the nation's barley, which is used for livestock feed and beer.
Steve Edwardson, administrator of the North Dakota Barley Council, said he doesn't expect a smaller crop to result in higher prices at the bar or liquor store.
"The amount of barley in a can of beer … can be anywhere from 1 to 3 cents," he said. "I wouldn't expect (prices) to go up a lot."
Posted in State-and-regional on Saturday, July 11, 2009 12:00 am
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