Optimistic farmers still see a window of time wherein things might work out this year.

Some pessimists see a window, too, and want to open it and jump out.

Just two years removed from one of the worst droughts in state history, some producers in western North Dakota fear they could be in store for another dismal summer. Early season figures back them up; soil in the western third of the state is far drier than normal.

"If it continues like this, it's not going to be a pretty growing season," Kurt Froelich, extension agent for Stark and Billings counties, said Monday. "It's dry out there, as dry as it's ever been. Farmers are saying they've never seen it this bad."

North Dakota's weekly Crop Weather Report, put out by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, says soil moisture in the western third of the state is in very short supply. Soil in the central third of the state, including the Bismarck area, is marginally better. The entire area was under a red flag warning Monday, meaning conditions were conducive to fires.

But, Froelich said, it's too early to write off what could turn out to be a good season. It happened a year ago, when the stars - and more importantly, the clouds - aligned and brought timely spring rains. Today is the first day of field work for the majority of North Dakota farmers. Even though some in the southwestern part of the state have been planting for two weeks already, others further east are just getting going. Froelich said April showers could still save the season.

"At this point in time, we have to proceed as if it's a normal situation," Froelich said. "If we were to sit and wait for it to rain, we might not do anything. Then again, this thing could start raining on us and then we'd really be behind the 8-ball. There's a window here yet to get things going." Froelich said it's not until mid-May when delayed planting would begin to negatively impact yields.

"Luckily, we're still in the first half of April," Froelich said. "If this was 30 or 45 days later, we'd be in a whole different situation."

At this time last year, just 1 percent of the state's soil was very short of moisture. This year, it's 32 percent and rising. The five-year average - counting the drought year of 2006 - is 6 percent, the USDA said.

Bismarck has received an inch of precipitation since Jan. 1, less than half of the normal amount. The area is already a half inch behind in April alone. There's not a lot of precipitation in the extended forecast, either. A cold front will bring a 30 percent chance of rain or snow tonight, and after that it's all blue skies into next week.

If there's a silver lining, it's that the state's wettest three months lie ahead. Historically, the most moisture comes in May, June and July.

(Reach reporter Tony Spilde at 250-8260 or tony.spilde@bismarcktribune.com.)